I keep hearing in the media that gas prices are expected to be 50% higher this winter, making it hard for people to keep their homes comfortable in this upcoming hard winter.
I have no quarrel with this story except for the last line… The story always ends with a comment from the reporter about how this is supposed to be a cold winter. My problem is here… Where does this information come from?
First of all, we all know that all seasonal forecasting is rather poor. It’s not that forecasters are incompetent; it’s just really hard to get a seasonal forecast right because there are so many different factors that can have an effect on the weather over a season. That being said, most reporters use the forecast from the National Climate Prediction Center when they quote a long range forecast. The thing is, the Climate Prediction Center is NOT calling for a hard winter this year. Check it out for yourself. Climate Prediction Center
Sometimes I think these national media reporters hear a forecast on another network and then repeat it without checking it out in the first place. If this is the case, then shame on them for being careless. Of course, they could be using a different source such as the Old Farmer’s Almanac, but I’d rather not even go there…