Location Matters

As your favorite real-estate agent will tell you, it is all about location, location, location. Just as two similar homes will sell for different prices based on location, the weather will vary greatly based on your location as well. You have probably experienced a thunderstorm missing you, yet at the same time knowing it was raining several miles away. One of the most common questions I get during the summer are requests for the location and timing of the thunderstorms that are in my forecast.

Depending on the meteorological set up that day, it can be very difficult to give an accurate estimation because of the random nature of thunderstorms. There are many elements that go into making an accurate forecast, but nailing down the exact location and timing of precipitation can be the most difficult. As our understanding of the atmosphere improves our ability to forecast thunderstorm placement has gotten better, but we still have much to learn.

Few New Chicks

Much of Canada has been experiencing a very cold spring and summer, even by their standards. Temperatures have been running anywhere from five to ten degrees below seasonally averages. These extremely cold conditions have not been favorable for migrant birds to reproduce.

Recent aerial surveys have found very few chicks and researchers fear that the lateness of the spring of 2009 dooms local birds to a nearly complete reproductive failure. The last time there was a late spring in northern Manitoba this cool was back in1983 and during that year virtually no lesser snow geese reproduced and this year has been even colder. Back in 1983 most species of birds did not nest at all and this year some estimates are for a 90% reduction in new yearlings.

The weather over the next few weeks will be crucial in determining exactly how many geese will pass over our area come September.

Friday and Saturday Rain

From the NWS in Grand Forks….

Rainfall totals Jun 26 2009

 

…STORM TOTAL RAINFALL…

THE FOLLOWING ARE RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 24-HOURS AS MEASURED
IN THE MORNING BY NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS AND AUTOMATED STATIONS.
OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY TAKEN AT 7 AM.

24-HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS:

***************** SATURDAY (06/27/09) **************

NORTH DAKOTA RAIN

LOCATION (COUNTY): FALL (IN)
LANKIN 9SW (WALSH)……………………….4.90
PARK RIVER 4N (WALSH)…………………….4.65
PARK RIVER (WALSH)…………………………4.56
REYNOLDS 8E (TRAILL)………………………4.30
EDINBURG (WALSH)…………………………..3.70
EDINBURG 1W (WALSH)………………………3.65
ADAMS (WALSH)………………………………..3.39
GRAFTON 7N (WALSH)……………………….3.25
GILBY 0.5S (GRAND FORKS)………………….3.20
BROCKET 3E (RAMSEY)………………………2.95
MILTON 2NE (CAVALIER)…………………….2.90
LANGDON 3NW (CAVALIER)……………………2.85
CAVAILER (PEMBINA)……………………….2.80
HANNAH (CAVALIER)………………………..2.75
ASOS @ GRAND FORKS AFB (GRAND FORKS)……….2.70
GRAND FORKS NWS (GRAND FORKS)……………..2.69
HATTON 6 NE (STEELE)……………………..2.60
DEVILS LAKE KDLR (RAMSEY)…………………2.56
NDAWN @ CAVALIER (PEMBINA)………………..2.54
GRAND FORKS (WESTSIDE)……………………2.56
ASOS @ GRAND FORKS AIRPORT (GRAND FORKS)……2.49
NDAWN @ MICHIGAN 2W (NELSON)………………2.45
LANGDON (CAVALIER)……………………….2.49
PETERSBURG (NELSON)………………………2.33
SARLES 5NE (CAVALIER)…………………….2.25
PEMBINA (PEMBINA)………………………..2.10
WALES (CAVALIER)…………………………2.10
OBERON 4N (BENSON)……………………….2.00
NDAWN @ HILLSBORO 6S (TRAILL)……………..1.94
AWOS @ DEVILS LAKE (RAMSEY)……………….1.93
NDAWN @ WYNDMERE (RICHLAND)……………….1.86
SARLES 2N (TOWNER)……………………….1.80
EDMORE (RAMSEY)………………………….1.73
HANSBORO (TOWNER)………………………..1.73
BARNEY 1W (RICHLAND)……………………..1.53
STARKWEATHER (RAMSEY)…………………….1.56
CANDO 9NW (TOWNER)……………………….1.40
PENN 6 SE (RAMSEY)……………………….1.36
HAVANA (SARGENT)…………………………1.30
COLGATE (STEELE)…………………………1.29
FORMAN (SARGENT)…………………………1.28
LEEDS 6E (BENSON)………………………..1.25
CHURCHS FERRY (RAMSEY)……………………1.17
ESMOND (BENSON)………………………….1.16
ARTHUR (CASS)……………………………1.15
NDAWN @ BAKER (BENSON)……………………1.14
NDAWN @ WAHPETON 5NW (RICHLAND)……………1.12
LIDGERWOOD (RICHLAND)…………………….1.04
NDAWN @ CANDO 2N (TOWNER)…………………0.93
MAYVILLE (TRAILL)………………………..0.92
NDAWN @ MAYVILLE 5E (TRAILL)………………0.82
NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIV (CASS)…………….0.78
WEST FARGO 4SSE (CASS)……………………0.75
NDAWN @ GALESBURG (TRAILL)………………..0.71
ASOS @ FARGO AIRPORT (CASS)……………….0.70
NDAWN @ PILLSBURY (BARNES)………………..0.68
MAPLETON (CASS)………………………….0.66
VALLEY CITY (BARNES)……………………..0.51
ITASCA STATE PARK (CLEARWATER)…………….0.59
NDAWN @ MCHENRY (EDDY)……………………0.45
NDAWN @ DAZEY (BARNES)……………………0.06

 

MINNESOTA RAIN
 

NDAWN @ STEPHEN (MARSHALL)………………..3.24
RED LAKE FALLS (RED LAKE)…………………3.23
LANCASTER (KITTSON)………………………2.97
HUMBOLT (KITTSON)………………………..2.74
ARGYLE (MARSHALL)………………………..2.58
CROOKSTON NW EXP STATION (POLK)……………2.20
PINE CREEK (ROSEAU RIVER WMA) (ROSEAU)……..1.75
HALSTAD (NORMAN)…………………………1.60
AWOS @ ROSEAU (ROSEAU)……………………1.43
FOURTOWN (BELTRAMI)………………………1.38
WARROAD (ROSEAU)…………………………1.24
AWOS @ HALLOCK (KITTSON)………………….1.17
NEW YORK MILLS (OTTER TAIL)……………….1.17
ROOSEVELT 5N (LAKE OF THE WOODS)…………..0.94
SEBEKA (WADENA)………………………….0.92
BRECKENRIDGE (WILKIN)…………………….0.90
WHEATON (TRAVERSE)……………………….0.88
AWOS @ WARROAD (ROSEAU)…………………..0.79
DALTON 3S (OTTER TAIL)……………………0.75
CAMP NORRIS DNR (LAKE OF THE WOODS)………..0.74
LONG LOST LAKE (CLEARWATER)……………….0.67
ELBOW LAKE VILLAGE 8ENE (CLEARWATER)……….0.67
AWOS @ DETROIT LAKES (BECKER)……………..0.66
ROTHSAY (WILKIN)…………………………0.66
NDAWN @ PERLEY (NORMAN)…………………..0.63
PELICAN RAPIDS (OTTER TAIL)……………….0.60
ITASCA U OF M (CLEARWATER)………………..0.59
WADENA (WADENA)………………………….0.54
AWOS @ FERGUS FALLS (OTTER TAIL)…………..0.49
ASOS @ PARK RAPIDS (HUBBARD)………………0.49
BEMIDJI (BELTRAMI)……………………….0.45
SABIN (CLAY)…………………………….0.44
ASOS @ BAUDETTE (LAKE OF THE WOODS)………..0.42
AWOS @ ELBOW LAKE AWOS (GRANT)…………….0.42
AWOS @ BEMIDJI (BELTRAMI)…………………0.40
WASKISH (BELTRAMI)……………………….0.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO 90

The average first 90 degree day of the year in Fargo Moorhead is on June 9th. Not only have we not recorded a temperature of 90 degrees yet this year, we have not even been close. The warmest day so far in 2009 has been 86 degrees. Last year we also experienced cool temperatures during the spring and early summer season and the first 90 degree day held off until July 1, 2008.

We average fourteen 90 degree days per year, but since this wet cycle began in 1992 we have experienced less than 10 such days in greater than 50% of the years. Wet soils and the extra cloud cover associated with the rain make it more difficult to reach the higher air temperatures. Since records have been kept only one year, 1915, passed without at least one 90 degree high.

We could observe our first 90 of the year either today or tomorrow with our best opportunity coming on Friday, but at the moment, the cloud cover may be sufficient enough to keep us from hitting the mark, it will be a close call.

 

 

Late Tornados

The tornado that hit the northern sections of Austin, Minnesota on June 16 was one of at least five reported across the state of Minnesota that day. Those five tornados were the first ones recorded in Minnesota this year. Only during three other years on record did it take longer for a tornado to form in the state then in 2009. In North Dakota, it took until June 15 for the first reported tornado to develop, also, much later than normal.

The persistently cool weather this past spring and early summer was not conducive to tornadic development and on the few warmer days the correct ingredients fail to come together for much severe weather. A recent shift in the upper-level wind flow over North America has not only allowed for more seasonal temperatures to move into our area, but has also brought many of the other necessary parameters for severe weather to the region.

Birthday Flood

Today is my son’s 11th birthday. This day not only brings memories of the birth of my first child, but also of the weather that was occurring outside our hospital window that afternoon in 1998.

An area of low-pressure was moving slowly across the Red River Valley that day triggering pockets of heavy rainfall. One such area moved over Fargo Moorhead late that afternoon producing torrential rain over the course of a few hours. By early evening anywhere from two to four inches of rain had fallen over the metro with an official total of 3.03 inches at the airport. The quick burst of rain flooded streets and filled the underpasses with water causing major traffic headaches throughout the city.

Those travel hazards kept me stuck at the hospital for sometime before I could finally venture home and phone my family and friends with the good news.

Bismarck Rain

A slow moving complex of Thunderstorms triggered areas of heavy rainfall in central North Dakota yesterday.  Some of the totals near Bismarck are listed below.  The data is from the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

Rainfall Totals for June 15

LATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM JUNE 15 HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT.

LOCATION……..AMOUNT……….TIME

BISMARCK 5 E…………….7.20 INCHES…..1115 PM CDT
BISMARCK 4 E…………….6.25 INCHES…..1023 PM CDT
BISMARCK 3 E…………….5.55 INCHES…..1215 AM CDT
LINCOLN 2 E……………….5.38 INCHES……430 AM CDT
BISMARCK NE…………….5.20 INCHES…..1027 PM CDT
MANDAN…………………….4.00 INCHES…..1112 PM CDT
PETTIBONE 7 NW………..3.75 INCHES…..226 AM CDT
BISMARCK AIRPORT….3.19 INCHES…..1201 AM CDT

 

June Cold Records

For five days, from last Friday through this Tuesday, the temperature in Fargo never climbed above 60 degrees. This is the longest such period on record in the month of June. During the cool stretch, not a single daily low temperature or daily low maximum temperature record was broken.

It was the consistency of the cool weather that was remarkable. Since 1881 when weather records were first recorded, that was the first time locally we have had a streak longer than three days with highs below 60 degrees in June. The cool weather has not been just confined to our area as even the Twin Cities tied their longest June stretch of three days with high temperatures in the 50s. The last time the Twin Cities reported three straight June days with highs in the 50s was back in 1951.

We hit 68 degrees yesterday, so the streak has finally ended.  Seasonal temperatures are expected to move into the area this weekend.
 

 

Make that 5 in a row

This is similar to my post yesterday, just corrected for the new data:

So far this June, we have recorded a high temperature below 60 degrees five times. Only the years 1915 and 1897 have also recorded five days with highs below 60 degrees, but this year is the first time the days have been consecutive. Historically, Fargo Moorhead averages one day in June with a high in the 50s or lower with 114 such occurrences in the 129-year record dating back to 1881.

The last time we had more than one day in June with a high below 60 degrees was back in 1998. That year we ended up with three such days, including a high of just 51 degrees on June 2. The summer of 1998 turned out to be a warm one; the 32nd warmest on record. So this year’s cool start of summer does not necessarily mean the entire summer will be cooler than average.