Will it be 4?

The equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to cool at a very rapid rate.  The transition from last year?s El Nino to our current La Nina was one of the fastest transitions observed.  An El Nino, in simple terms, is when the water along and near the equatorial Pacific is warmer than average and a La Nina is present when the water temperatures are running below average.   Right now the La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean are the strongest since 1955.  The weather we have been experiencing in recent weeks has been fairly typical of other La Nina autumns in the past.

I have written before that no one variable will guarantee this area any type of weather for our upcoming cold season. With that in mind, in the past 60 years, all the winters that had La Nina conditions of this magnitude ended up with temperature averaging below normal except one.

Therefore, at the moment, the odds favor another colder than average winter for this area.

3 thoughts on “Will it be 4?

  1. Robert… don’t be surprised if the warmer part ends up being wrong… this winter may surprise.

    Jon…

    There has been more drier La Nina’s than wet ones… the problem is the wet ones tend to be well above average which skews the data a bit. Usually one or two storms either missing or hitting this area is the difference between wet and dry. Take last winter. If you take away the two Christmas events… we barely had any snow at all last winter (less then 30″). So I would flip a coin on the moisture, but give us a 75% chance of a colder than average December through March timeframe.

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