Weather Rhythm

Mark Twain is often given credit for the saying “everyone talks about the weather, but nobody ever does anything about it”.  Although he borrowed the saying from Charles Dudley Warner, his collaborator on The Gilded Age, it was Twain that made it famous.

Another saying from Mark Twain I often use in my public speaking appearances that he may or not have borrowed from someone is “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”.  I doubt he was referencing weather when he said it, but it fits weather patterns quite well.  No two seasons, or years are ever the same, but yet, they will share similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions.  Looking in the past for similar signals to the current pattern can be a very useful tool in projecting future weather trends.

This technique is referred to as the analog method.  Using past analog years lead me to believe this autumn would be mild, which so far has worked well, but the same techniques unfortunately still favor the up coming winter to be colder than average.