The End of Wet?

This summer has many parallels to what occurred in 2006.  You may recall that 2006 was also a warm dry summer in the region.  That summer there were many comments about how the wet cycle must have finally ended and that drier years were ahead.

That year I was asked frequently if I thought our string of wet years was over and my response was to ask me in five years.  My reasoning was it would take at least that long before there would be any conclusive evidence that a different precipitation pattern had developed.  Certainly, the wet pattern would end eventually, and it may end quickly, but one dry spell does not necessarily mean the end of a long term pattern.  2006 turned out to be just an aberration as the following years were very wet once again, with devastating flooding in 2009, 2010, and 2011.

Six years later, it is dry again with the same question being asked and my answer is still the same, ask me in five years.

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