Correlation

One of the most common questions that come into the weather center deals with correlation.  We are often asked if because this season is – insert hot, cold, dry or wet – does that mean the next season will be – insert hot, cold, dry or wet—and usually the reference is that the next season will be the opposite of what is currently occurring. 

In other words, is there a correlation between what is occurring now and what we can expect in the future?  Our cold spring have many people inquiring if a hot summer is coming as that would then “balance” the weather.  There can be some correlation between seasons, especially when dealing with El Nino or La Nina events, yet even in those instances the relationship is no where near 100% accurate. Therefore, as a general rule a pattern from one season, does not correlate very well with future seasons. 

Meaning, this summer will not necessarily continue to be cold, or end up extremely warm based on what has been occurring these past few months.

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