It’s Just A Forecast

 

Even as technology improves, weather forecasting is still forecasting.  We are almost never exactly right.  Our goal on a daily basis is to be close enough to be useful, and most of the time, we are.  Sometimes, however, we do miss by a lot, like Monday’s snow storm. Most Twin Cities forecasts on the previous Friday had the heavy snow going south of the Twin Cities.  Over the weekend, most forecasts changed to having it go right through the Twin cities.  But Monday came and snowfall was an inch or two at Bloomington and Inver Grove Heights to six inches in Coon Rapids and Lino Lakes on the north side.  The heavy snow (12-17 inches) fell from St. Cloud to Cambridge.  As a forecaster, myself, I can say that the Twin Cities forecasters did pretty well with the storm.  They got the amounts right and were off by a only hundred miles. That is not bad for a highly energetic fluid dynamics problem covering an area the size of several states.   Meteorologist John Wheeler