Hurricane Forecast

There are three major, large-scale factors which can have large scale effects on the Atlantic hurricane season.  One is the general sea-surface temperature.  If the tropical part of the Atlantic Basin is warmer than average, there is more thermodynamic energy available for hurricanes.  Another is the amount of dust from the Sahara.  Actually, it isn’t the dust, but the deep layer of dry air which accompanies these dust clouds that rob tropical storms of moisture.  The other key is the overall strength of upper level winds.  When the winds aloft are strong, tropical storms tend to shear apart before they can grow large and powerful.  The presence of a building El Nino such as there is at present often produces stronger winds above the Atlantic, usually signaling a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.   Meteorologist John Wheeler