Almost three weeks ago, some new forecasting techniques made it evident to me that an upper-level pattern change of some sort was likely before Thanksgiving and I said so several times on the evening news. I began putting out generalized 14-day forecasts a week later, suggesting the change would likely occur on or near Friday, November 19. I said that the transition would likely produce a storm in our region but the track was unknown.
When the change, along with a storm, materialized this week, but only grazed the Fargo area, some accused us of “hyping” the storm. I disagree. True, two days before the storm, our snow forecast for Fargo was a little high, but we reeled that in the next day and essentially nailed the forecast 24 hours before it hit. By talking about a pattern change weeks in advance, apparently we encouraged people’s imaginations to do some “hyping.” But we were very careful to keep our forecasts realistic and as accurate as possible.
Meteorologist John Wheeler