The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) released their analysis of the winter of 2013-2014 last week. NCDC ranked the period from December 1 through February 28 as the 25th coldest on record for North Dakota. You may recall locally it was the 16th coldest on record, but western North Dakota was not as cold making the average for the entire state lower in the cold rankings.
Minnesota on the other hand recorded a more evenly spread cold winter throughout that state. Taken as a whole, NCDC ranked this past winter as the 6th coldest on record in Minnesota. The past 119 winters are used in these rankings. Nationally, NCDC ranked the past winter as the 34th coldest on record.
Using other datasets and analysis puts that ranking closer to the Top 10, but no matter what the ranking; most Americans east of the Rocky Mountains experienced a winter that will not soon be forgotten.
Here is a weather question to start your day. Which first half of March, March 2013 or March 2014 was colder? If you guessed this year, you are correct, but just by a fraction of a degree. Last March and this one both recorded an average temperature just slightly below 18 degrees. That is approximately 6 degrees below average.
The big difference from last year to this year was a year ago Fargo Moorhead recorded about 10 inches of snow and this month just1.8 inches of snow was recorded from March 1 through the 16. We all remember the phenomenally warm March of 2012, but that was one of only two Marches that started with above average temperatures this century.
The other March that started mild was back in 2010, which made for an early flood that year. This March certainly started cold, but nowhere near as extreme as 2003 when the first half of March had an average temperature of just 11 degrees.
There were many impressive statistics from this past winter. There are two in particular that caught my attention and these were both Chicago and the Twin Cities recording a Top 10 coldest winter on record. Chicago recorded an average temperature of 18.8 degrees from December 1 through February 28.
That ranked as the 3rd coldest winter on record for that city with records going back to 1872. The Twin Cities average temperature was 9.7 degrees and that ranked as the 9th coldest on record with records used to 1891. The location of where the official temperatures and precipitation has been taken has moved through the years in both cities, but the one consistent fact through time has been the expansion of the urban heat island influence in these large metropolitan areas. The temperature can be several degrees warmer within these cities than it is in nearby rural areas.
Yet even with that man-made heat influence these cities recorded such a cold winter. Just imagine what the average temperature would have been in a similar winter 100 years ago.
The average date of the first 50 degree high in Fargo Moorhead is March 18. The high temperature this past Thursday was 58 degrees which was our first 50 (and nearly our first 60 degree) reading of the season.
One of the keys to reaching 50 degrees is snow cover. Although within the city limits of Fargo Moorhead many areas, particularly the older parts of town there was still plenty of snow on the ground that day, outside of the metro, especially to our west there has been very little snow on the ground for the past few weeks. A west wind off that bare ground helped the temperature reach 58 degrees that afternoon. If you are curious, the average first 60 degree high is on April 3 and the first 70 is on April 18.
Although the pattern still looks to be producing more cold days than warm ones in the short term, the lack of snow will at least keep temperatures warmer than what it would be with a whiter landscape.
Our last below zero reading was a -1 degree temperature that occurred around 2:30 AM on March 5. The temperature was well above zero much of that night, but the sky cleared just after midnight, the temperature briefly dropped below zero, then the clouds moved back in and the temperature rose to nearly 10 degrees before most people headed to work or school. In other words, that below zero reading was hardly even noticed.
Yet, that -1 degree reading did push the seasonal total for days with a low below zero to an even 70 days. Those 70 days would rank the cold season of 2013-2014 as tied for the 14th highest such total on record. Although, another negative morning is certainly possible, historically after this point they tend to only occur with a deep snow cover, which we currently lack.
Therefore, with any luck, our next negative morning in Fargo Moorhead will be near November 28, which is the average date of our first below zero reading of our next cold season.
Leap day. It is what we call February 29, the day added onto February every fourth year to keep the seasons from slowly drifting through time as the earth takes slightly longer than 365 days to revolve around the Sun. Leap day on occasion does impact climate statistics and this past winter was possibly one of those times.
Our recently completed winter was the 16th coldest on record, but the National Weather Service recently released a statement that this past winter was the 17th coldest on record. The difference? February 29, 1904. Including that day makes the winter of 1903-1904 average temperature 4.4 degrees. Without that day, the average temperature is 4.2 degrees. The winter of 2013-2014 that we just completed had an average of 4.3 degrees meaning that depending on if you include that leap day this winter’s ranking changes by one position. Is one statistic more accurate than the other?
Not necessarily, but leap day seems to get little respect, so I always include in all my analysis and most other researchers do as well.
An email arrived in the weather center asking what day of the year has the largest temperature range from the record low to the record high. The recorded low on January 8, 1887 was -48 degrees. Thirteen years later, on January 8, 1900, the recorded high temperature reached 50 degrees.
That difference of 98 degrees still stands as the greatest range between a record high and low for any date in Fargo Moorhead. In second place is March 18. On March 18, 2012 the high reached 78 degrees with the record low for that date being -19 degrees observed in both 1883 and in 1923 for a difference of 97 degrees from record high to record low. A snow free March as we learned in 2012 can be very mild, a snow covered March like last year and so far this year, can be bitterly cold.
Those snow variations in combination with a higher sun angle this time of year make March the month with most of the extreme record differences observed in this area.
This past winter season was definitely cold, but it certainly was not snowy. From December 1 through February 28, the official snow total from our cooperative observer in north Moorhead totaled 27.3 inches. That is 2.1 inches below the average of 29.4 inches for that time period. It was the second year in a row with snowfall being very close to the average during the three principal months of winter as last year 28.7 inches was recorded.
More important than the amount of snow is the water content in that snow. The 27.3 inches of snow that fell in the past three months contained 2.09 inches of liquid, right at the average of 2.14 inches. Meaning, this past winter was about as average as average gets for winter precipitation. The driest of the three winter months was February as only 1.5 inches was measured last month, the 8th lowest total on record for that month.
That snow contained only 0.11 inches of liquid making February 2014 the 7th driest since records began in 1881.
By now many of you may have heard that both Fargo Moorhead and Grand Forks set a record on Saturday, March 1 for the coldest high temperature not only for that date, but also for the month of March. The high in Grand Forks (UND/National Weather Service site) was -9 degrees and in Fargo Moorhead the high reached -8 degrees.
Of note, the high of -8 degrees in Fargo occurred just after midnight with the afternoon high reaching only -10 degrees. Both of those highs shattered the daily record for lowest maximum for March 1 and narrowly set new monthly records. The previous coldest March high was -7 in Fargo Moorhead set back on March 10, 1948 and in Grand Forks the previous record was -8 set on March 6, 1955.
Other cities in the region that set new March records for lowest maximum over the weekend included Sioux City and Waterloo, IA, Omaha and Lincoln, NE, and Eau Claire, WI, plus many others around the country.
The average temperature this past winter (December through February) was 4.3 degrees. That ranks as the 16th coldest winter of the 133 winters on record in Fargo Moorhead (records began on January 1, 1881, therefore the first winter has incomplete data, meaning the first winter of record was the winter of 1881-1882).
The last colder winter in Fargo Moorhead was back in 1981-1982 when the average temperature was 3.3 degrees. Other fairly recent colder winters were in the late 1970s. The winter of 1978-1979 the average temperature was 0.6 degrees and the winter of 1977-1978 the average was 2.8 degrees. Those were the two coldest back to back winters since the 1880s. Even with such a cold winter being recorded, no record lows were set. Of interest, the coldest temperature of winter was just -25 degrees on January 2 which is 3 degrees above the average coldest temperature recorded in a year locally.
There have been colder winters, but if you are under 30, it was the coldest winter in your lifetime.